A state Democratic official has decided that changes in the state unemployment rate will have a major effect on her party's chance of gaining or losing seats in the state sente. She has determined that if unemployment rises by 2 percent or more, the respective probabilities of losing more then 10 seats, losing 6 to 10 seats, gaining or losing 5 or fewer seats, gaining 6 to 10 seats, and gaining more than 10 seats are 0.25,0.35, 0.15, 0.15, and 0.10, respectively. If unemployment changes by less than 2 percent, the respective probabilities are 0.10, 0.10, 0.15, 0.35, and 0.30.
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