Probability I: Introductory Ideas

In a recent meeting of union members supporting Joe Royal for union president, Royal's leading supporting said ''chances are good'' that Royal will defeat the single opponent facing him in the election.

1. What are the “events” that could take place with regard to the election?
2. Is your list collectively exhaustive? Are the events in your list mutually exclusive?
3. Disregarding the supporter’s comments and knowing no additional information, what probabilities would you assign to each of your events?

Solution

1. Only two events would apply to this decision. Royal wins or Royal loses.
2. The list in part (1) is collectively exhaustive and the events are mutually exclusive.
3. Disregarding the supporter's comments and knowing, not additional information, , we can able to assign a probability of 1/2 (or .50) to each event.