Probability I: Introductory Ideas

Cartoonist Barry Bludeau sends his comics to his publisher via Union Postal Delivery. UPD uses rail and truck transportation in Mr. Bludeau’s part of the country. In UPD’s 20 years of operation, only 2 percent of the packages carried by rail and only 3.5 percent of the packages carried by truck have been lost. Mr. Bludeau calls the claims manager to inform him that a package containing a week of comics has been lost. If UPD sends 60 percent of the packages in that area by rail, which mode of transportation was more likely used to carry the lost comics? How does the solution change if UPD loses only 2 percent of its packages, regardless of the mode of transportation?

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