Probability I: Introductory Ideas

The American Cancer Society is planning to mail out questionnaires concerning breast cancer. From past experience with questionnaires, the Cancer Society knows that only 15 percent of the people receiving questionnaires will respond. It also knows that 1.3 percent of the questionnaires mailed out will have a mistake in address and never be delivered, that 2.8 percent will be lost or destroyed by the post offi ce, that 19 percent will be mailed to people who have moved, and that only 48 percent of those who move leave a forwarding address. (a) Do the percentages in the problem represent classical, relative frequency, or subjective probability estimates? (b) Find the probability that the Cancer Society will get a reply from a given questionnaire.

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